Fooled by odds? – Bets, trends and estimates 1t262

The odds are the ones you are betting on. Beyond the mathematical representations, each punter perceives and treats the odds differently. In sports betting, odds represent the probability of an expected event and show how much you can receive if your bet is validated as a winner. 5i5x2k

In the case of the Romanian market, you consider the odds in the decimal system. This system has been implemented and accepted because of the ease with which you can understand the potential gain. 393h3i

The higher the stake, the more you can earn by taking risks. The lower the odds, the harder it seems to win. Because it will be very difficult to estimate the risk, especially in the case of a “live” match.

Betting, trends and estimates for an European match 4iq3r

14th minute in Sevilla – West Ham, Europa League match, season 2021 – 2022. Sevilla, the great specialist of the competition against the “blue collars” of the Premier League.

A game that would seem balanced, as suggests the odds of the two teams winning. West Ham is not an easy opponent but can not be considered top.

odds

In the 20th minute, scoring under/over 1.5 goals. The odds of over 1.5 goals are rising naturally after 20 minutes in which they did not score. The odds below 1.5 goals remain around @ 2.00, ensuring a certain balance. The values of the odds are natural. I can say that they are the real odds, without being artificially altered by the margin.

In the 25th minute, the proportion changes, the odds remain within the best possible limits for the punters. However, you can’t help but notice from the statistical evolution of the game that the pressure of the hosts increases. There are already 8 shots on goal from the Spaniards compared to only 3 from the English. And the number of corners became equal, 1-1.

Against the background of the lack of a goal, the trends are:

• The hosts odds are increasing
• The odds for a draw are decreasing
• The guests odds is increasing slowly than the hosts’ one
• The odds at over 1.5 goals are rising rather quickly while the odds at under 1.5 goals are declining linearly

Calculate your Operator’s Payout/Profit Margin at over/under 1.5 goals in the 25th minute and you will notice that:

Over 1.5 goals @ 2.02 – 1 / 2.02 = 0.495

Under 1.5 goals @ 1.80 – 1 / 1.80 = 0.555

0.495 + 0.555 = 1.605. (1,605 – 1)*100 = 6.5% profit margin of the bookmaker. The Payout being 100% – 6.5% = 93.5%

And the first half does not seem to offer the expected show, both teams defending exactly. The betting house’s appreciations regarding a match without too many goals are confirmed, at least in the first half. And in the last minutes of the first half, the evolution of odds to under/over 1.5 goals strengthens the above. 0-0 at the break, without a goal scored by Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. A first half in which Sevilla had 10 chances to score compared to 5 of West Ham. 3 shots on goal for the hosts and 2 for the guests but the Spaniards have more attacks and a higher number of successful es (316 compared to 221).

After the first 45 minutes, you can consider a few bets to break:

• The victory of the hosts
• Under 2.5 goals
• Over 6.5, even over 7.5 corners

Second half:

The dominance of the hosts materializes after the break, you can see the odds at over 1.5 goals reached @1.60 when scoring the goal. The Spaniards increased the quality of the game, accentuated the dominance and managed the goal of 1-0.

After scoring the goal, the odds under/over 1.5 goals reach a new balance. Somewhat paradoxically due to the strong dominance of the hosts who put increased pressure. Statistics confirm that a new goal can be expected. And it’s only 66 minutes.

It could be a high point in the game or it could be the beginning of a series of goals. The experience of both teams and the stakes of the game require caution. Statistics, however, can push you to gamble on a bet on several goals (over 2.5 goals, GG).

In the 80th minute, here is the image of the game below, the statistics being still a point of discussion:

• Sevilla accentuated their dominance, the pressure can be seen in the number of corners and attacks
• West Ham is defending itself, without being overwhelmed by the situation. Only 2 yellow cards shown so far in this match. Both for the Englishmen.
• Odds below/above 1.5 are undergoing major changes, indicating that there are deficiencies in the quality of attacks. The tendency not to is quite clear shown by the operator.

Calculate your Operator’s Payout/Profit Margin at over/under 1.5 goals in the 80th minute and you will notice that:

Over 1.5 goals @ 2.82 – 1 / 2.82 = 0.354

Under 1.5 goals @ 1.44 – 1 / 1.44 = 0.694

0.354 + 0.694 = 1.048. (1,048 – 1)*100 = 0.04% profit margin of the bookmaker. The Payout being 100% – 6.5% = 96.5%

In the 90th minute:

You might think that you have witnessed a fairly linear game, judging by the evolution of odds. The victory of the hosts shows a bet that confirms, as well as the increased number of corners. When dominance in the field is not manifested on the scoreboard, it can be found in increasing the number of corners.

Even if it is not easy to appreciate, the 1-0 result appears fair.

Calculate the margin of odds offered at over/under 1.5 goals in the 90th minute and you will notice that:

Over 1.5 goals @ 7.40 – 1 / 7.4 = 0.135

Under 1.5 goals @ 1.09 – 1 / 1.09 = 0.917

0.135 + 0.917 = 1.052. (1,052 – 1)*100 = 0.05% profit margin of the bookmaker. The Payout being 100% – 0.05% = 99.5%

Any game can be commented and evaluated based on the evolution on the field but also starting from the bets placed. In this case it was a game with a high degree of predictability.

A match where it was good to wait for the break and make the decision to bet. Technically, there aren’t too many arguments in favor of the guests, but the psychological impact of the listed odds can’t be ignored.

In such a match you are not fooled by odds and you have no real reason to consider a odds “too high” or “too low” and this is clearly seen in the evolution of the margin.